An Easier Counterintuitive Conditional Probability Problem (with and Without Bayes’ Theorem)

Given my recent posts about difficult counterintuitive probability problems (a topic from which I’ll now take a break for a while), I thought it’d be fun to briefly look at a problem that ceases to be counterintuitive once explained. This… Continue Reading

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Two-Child Problem (when one is a girl named Florida born on a Tuesday)

A classic probability riddle goes: A couple has two children, one of whom is a girl. What is the probability both children are girls? It’s usually credited to Martin Gardner who, in a 1959 issue of Scientific American, posed essentially this… Continue Reading

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