Counterintuitive Dice Probability: How many rolls expected to get a 6, given only even outcomes?

1. A Counterintuitive Probability Problem Mathematician Gil Kalai recently posted the following intuition-bending probability problem at his blog: You throw a dice until you get 6. What is the expected number of throws (including the throw giving 6) conditioned on… Continue Reading

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Why We Get the Monty Hall Problem Wrong(?)

Part I: The Monty Hall Problem The Monty Hall Problem (explained below) is one of those math results┬áthat strikes most┬ápeople as counterintuitive. The problem is often illuminated by restating it with 100 doors instead of 3 doors. This makes many… Continue Reading

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