Three Strange Results in Probability: Cognitive States and the Principle of Indifference (Monty Hall, Flipping Coins, and Factory Boxes)

Probability is known for its power to embarrass our intuitions. In most cases, math and careful observation bear out counterintuitive results. After many such experiences, one’s intuition improves (sometimes perhaps crossing into a kind of overcorrection—see the Optional Endnote for… Continue Reading

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Why We Get the Monty Hall Problem Wrong(?)

Part I: The Monty Hall Problem The Monty Hall Problem (explained below) is one of those math results that strikes most people as counterintuitive. The problem is often illuminated by restating it with 100 doors instead of 3 doors. This makes many… Continue Reading

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