Nassim Taleb’s Fat Tony Example / And: Is it possible to flip 100 Heads in a row?

In his book The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a fellow urban slow-walker, describes a scenario in which he poses the following question to two characters, the rational & educated Dr. John and the intuitive & streetwise Fat Tony: Assume that… Continue Reading

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Amnesiac’s Dilemma (Aka: Sleeping Beauty Problem)

There’s a probability problem that lacks an obvious solution, despite appearing simple at first glance. It’s usually called the Sleeping Beauty Problem, but I’m uncomfortable with that formulation, as it strikes me as needlessly sexist: it usually revolves around a young woman… Continue Reading

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Why We Get the Monty Hall Problem Wrong(?)

Part I: The Monty Hall Problem The Monty Hall Problem (explained below) is one of those math results that strikes most people as counterintuitive. The problem is often illuminated by restating it with 100 doors instead of 3 doors. This makes many… Continue Reading

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